Nairobi I’m glad I’m not a handicapper trying to make the final call on the direction of US politics these days, because we’re almost in the tea leaves and astrology space in trying to sort out where we stand over the coming months. For all the headlines, doom casting, and hand wringing, the polls that so many pundits and pols consult to divine the mood and will of the American people are little help. President Biden, for whatever reason, remains where he was before the recent debate in most polls, perhaps down one-point on average, so still highly competitive with more than three months of the campaign left to get into higher gear. No other prospective candidate on the Dem-side does any better, so there you have it. There has been one clear takeaway from the back and forth of both parties that has to do with the power of the donor class, or their lack of it.
The Times are somewhat more than usually unreliable on these current events given their clearly stated editorial position, but if they are to be believed the donor class so critical to funding presidential campaigns has in many cases amassed to convince Biden to leave the race, and is suffering through the surprise that they have overestimated their power, and he’s ignoring their pleas and protests. No matter your position on Biden in or out, that’s good news for US democracy that he’s unbowed and unbought. With no alternatives, they will have to choose to come back in the campaign or sit it out. Other reports indicate that Biden has simply focused on more small donor contributions. It must be disturbing to big money players that contributions to Biden – and Trump – both were high after the debate.
On the other side of the divide, big donors seem to be having more luck with the Republicans. Newly minted VP candidate, Ohio Senator J. D. Vance, seems to already be calling for less regulation of artificial intelligence, which is a huge clue to who is calling his tune. Peter Thiel, the arch-conservative Silicon Valley libertarian, seems to have been the primary funder of his ambitious climb up the political ladder from his confounding and contradictory book, Hillbilly Elegy. Artificial intelligence is hardly a grassroots, populist issue in America, even if it is right at the heartbeat of many in the Valley. Elon Musk, an on-and-off richest man in the world, cares deeply about all of these issues, enough that he’s deserting California for Texas as a more friendly climate for his enterprises, ambitions, and prejudices. He’s also committed $45 million a month to a new super PAC supporting Trump to increase voter turnout, including with absentee voting, which only four years ago was a huge Republican no-no. He made a personal endorsement of the former president. One op-ed recently insinuated that Vance, having moved from the head of the Never Trumpers to the anointed future leader of the MAGA forces, has sold his soul.
There’s no question that money matters in these billion-dollar campaigns in a country the size of the United States. The Supreme Court has allowed the rich donors to be unfettered. Certainly, they have their place, but it needs to be in the trailing car at the back of the parade, not the front seat where the people belong.