Pearl River The funny thing about power is that it is never absolute. Even when you have a lot of it and want more, having power is predicated on the base. What goes around, eventually does come around, if the rich and powerful forget about or neglect the base. They have to have significant support and consensus even if they seek more control of government and institutions. When commentators talk about right-wing populism there is no confusion that it bends towards the rich and business, but to maintain the popular base requires bread and circuses, as the ancients argued. Bread is the giveaways to pacify the base, and circuses in modern terms means control of the culture.
We see this clearly when we look at the Trump and Republicans’ Big, Beautiful Budget Bill. In order to continue the rich and corporate tax breaks requires debt and robbing low-and-moderate income families, so they cut food, medical and other supports to fund big breaks. At the same time, and at much less expense, yet more sleight of hand, they try to headline claims to increase family tax deductions, reduce taxes on tips, add a tad to the childcare credit and other giveaways, all of which pale in comparison to the big transfers including to the middle class with things like the increase in deductions for state and local taxes. It’s a miserly bit of bread when the numbers are added up comparing beneficiaries of populism versus many more millions who are victims of the cutbacks, which is why Trump and the White House require so many cultural frontal attacks to distract the public, as they wait for these small trinkets to trickle down in the budget bill.
The problem is that it’s not working out so well.
Even while Trump is going to war against immigrants in Los Angeles and other cities, he and the heavy breathing haters in the White House have directed ICE to pause immigration raids in agriculture, hotels, and restaurants. In a total rarity, during the last week in the midst of his crazy, Trump conceded that the raids were hurting farmers and the hospitality industry.
The pain starts at the bottom, but eventually gets to the top. More than Wall Street is betting on the TACO presidency, where Trump Always Chickens Out. Even in populism, he has little choice. He doesn’t have absolute power, at least not yet, so he can’t afford to lose his base, even as he attacks his opponents, real and imagined. It was telling on the eve of the No Kings Marches how he was whining about the difficulty of imposing his will, the limits of his power, and the truth of his many setbacks.
The pain for Trump starts at the bottom, and it is building. Days ago, in one of my infrequent visits for a haircut, my barber, fully aware of my sympathies, told me he had already lost 35 regular haircuts. Many of them came from a whole large boat crew working the Mississippi River that had been decimated by federal workers cutbacks and reduced shipping because of the Trump tariffs. At $20 a cut plus probably an average of another $5 in tips, he’s taking a loss in the neighborhood of one grand a month. And, remember this is a barber facing a ripple a long, long way from the larger tariff tsunamis. I overheard a customer in the other chair talking to his barber about whether he was going to make it. He was a federal subcontractor it turns out on some kind of research project, so he couldn’t tell whether the layoffs, firings, and retirements were going to get as far down as his intermediaries. He was betting he might just make it, but he wasn’t sure.
When barbershop conversations are not about the NBA Finals, the prospects for the NFL Saints, or the chances for the LSU baseball team, but about layoffs, tariffs, and lost business, Trump and the Republicans are in trouble. For the barber, getting a break on taxes for tips doesn’t mean much when the tips have dropped like a rock. The big problem with balancing bread and circuses, is that people always care a lot more about the bread than the circus. Maybe Trump and his people are starting to get this message. If not, next comes the deluge.