New Orleans In a shocking surprise to many veteran politicos and Democratic stalwarts, Zohran Mamdani, a 33-year old New York state representative and self-proclaimed democratic socialist, emerged as the clear leader in the Democratic primary for mayor of New York City, winning by many miles over former governor Andrew Cuomo among other established city elected officials. There were many factors, and undoubtedly, we’ll hear a lot about every possible theory in coming days, but while the light is shining on this election, there are lessons worth noting.
One has to do with ranked choice voting, which is used in New York City. The simplest explanation is straight forward. Voters rank their choices among all of the candidates from one to whatever number. The winner is determined by the candidate that receives not the highest individual number of votes, which Mamdani did with more than 40%, but the cumulative votes cast and weighted along the ranks. Potentially, and this in fact has been the case in a governor’s race in a state contest using ranked choice, a candidate could trail at the top of the ballot, but get so many 2nd, 3rd, and 4th votes that they could end up winning once everything is tallied.
Voters can put their fingers on the scale by “bullet voting,” where they only rank one candidate at the top, which might impact the totals, if it was a collective strategy. More effective, as this election establishes, if there is a concerted effort to block a candidate, as we saw in the “Don’t Rank Cuomo” part of this campaign, this has the potential of denying a candidate any down ballot help. Candidates, like Mamdani, were making deals with other candidates to include them in the ranking on their ballots, essentially campaigning together, which also isolated Cuomo, the early favorite.
This was where Cuomo reaped what he has sowed. He had been damaged and forced out as part of the #MeToo effort, which might have poisoned the well for some voters, but for my money, his longtime war against the more liberal-left forces, particularly the Working Families Party, was his undoing. He had tried mightily as governor to block WFP from the ballot, raise the thresholds for a ballot line, and anything else he could get away with in Albany. WFP helped lead the effort against Cuomo by endorsing four candidates to be ranked without him. Vast credit in the nuts and bolts of the campaign is also given to Mamdani’s grassroots campaign with more than a million doors knocked and more, all of which is a WFP specialty.
Finally, credit Mamdani for going all out on the issue of affordable housing and rent freezes which resonated with an inflation-wracked constituency of the young and others. It’s still the economy in politics, but you have to know who is being hurt by the economy in devising your program so that the appeal is clear.
Mamdani still faces a tough road to Gracie Mansion in the general election, and his election is not a slam dunk for future Democratic Party successes. He mopped up in areas where college-educated and young voters dominated, think Brooklyn, while Cuomo still held solid majorities about Black precincts and what’s left of working class areas, where he was helped by big union endorsements. He did well in Asian and Muslim areas, and, if elected, he would be the first Muslim mayor of New York City.
As exciting as his success in the city is, it’s hardly a model. New York City politics remains sui generis. In a runoff primary election against Cuomo, he might have had trouble prevailing, and rank choice voting is still rare across the country. To win everywhere, Democrats need to build on the classic pillars of their support and add new constituencies. They can’t win by substituting come blocs for others.
Mamdani makes the case for young, energetic, and charismatic candidates, but Democrats still need a program that moves all of the pieces together on an election.