Brussels           One thing that every experienced organizer knows is that you have to calibrate the tactics so that they align with your strategy.  Too strong, you lose.  Too weak, you lose.  It’s important in applying pressure that you are able to push the target to either concede or negotiate and also leverage allies and neutrals to your position.  Losing control of the tactics can end up backfiring by alienating potential support, rather than activating it to your side.

I think the Trump team may be forgetting these basics in the shutdown standoff.  They are so used to the revenge-and-vindication tour that they are shooting wild now and not remembering that any pain they inflect needs to actually pressure the other party.

The Secretary of Transportation has announced a 10% reduction in airline traffic in the nation’s top 40 airports, which could lead to the cancellation of thousands of flights.  It’s one thing when they callously punish poor families.  They don’t care about them.  The Democrats claim to care, but they don’t really and truly see lower income families as part of their current or future coalition of voters, largely because they in fact don’t vote as regularly as other blocks.

Air travel is different.  Over the last week, I’ve flown through both Boston and Chicago, as well as overseas.  All of the planes were late by 60 to 90 minutes, partially due to weather and wind, but also due to the shutdown.  These flights are packed with businessmen and women.  You can tell by the logos on their hoodies, backpacks, and carry-ons.  Many are already unhappy about the tariffs.  They are traveling less and zooming more since the pandemic, but start cancelling their flights and you’re going to hear the shouts from the premium lounges to their local Congressional representatives.  I probably don’t need to add that most of these folks are Republicans.

Trump isn’t helping as he plays favorites either.   He’s glad to find the money and move it around, Congress be damned, to pay for his ICE-men and soldiers, but he’s making TSA folks work without pay and threatening not to backpay when the shutdown ends.  The administration is claiming the flight cutbacks are to give traffic controllers a break, but in reality, many are already calling in sick and doing personal mini-strikes to protest working without pay in one of the most stressful jobs in the public sector.  Both of these groups are unlikely to see themselves as part of the Democratic coalition, so his picking-and-choosing his favorites in the public sector also sends a message that will last a lot longer than five or six weeks of shutdown.  In fact, punishing federal employees in general, and indefinitely, is going to cause its own kind of backlash, and was likely part of the Virginia beatdown in the recent election.

There are starting to be more and more reports of progress in negotiations, especially among Senators, despite all of the chest beating and bluffing from the Republican majority that they won’t negotiate until the shutdown ends.  Trump has demanded an end to the filibuster, but no one is really listening, and even conservatives realize that their day may end sooner, rather than later, and they may need the filibuster then, as much as the Democrats need it now.

Trump now owns the record for both of the top slots for the longest shutdowns ever.  They are just throwing wild punches now and shooting wildly in a circle.  The polls are breaking bad, and the tactics are creating self-inflicted wounds.

Someone needs to take charge and make a deal.  This won’t get better for the Trump team or anyone of their gang.