New Orleans The fact that the Iowa presidential caucus for the Republicans had the smallest turnout in twenty-five years might give some Never Trumpers in the party a straw to grab, but it would be a thin reed compared to the fact that former President Trump won by the greatest margin ever at more than thirty points. His numbers put him over 51% and left his remaining challenges, Florida Governor DeSantis and former South Carolina Governor and UN representative Haley at 21% and 19% respectively. This wasn’t an election, it was a coronation of Trump by the Republican base.
Next up for the Republicans is New Hampshire. Observers note that not only did Trump administer a shellacking to DeSantis and Haley, but he also ended any talk of either of them, particularly Haley, going into New Hampshire with any momentum. Trump owns all of the momentum now. It’s going to be hard for the other candidates, their supporters, and especially their donors to believe that even if they do better in New Hampshire, that they seriously have any chance of taking the nomination away from Trump. So, he only wins by 40% or 30% there; they still lose with no real pathway to victory.
The primaries after that are in Nevada, South Carolina, and Michigan in February. Nevada is only two weeks after New Hampshire. Reports indicate that DeSantis is running out of money. He only had $5000 to spend on media in the last week before the Iowa caucus. He’ll have to throw everything he’s got at New Hampshire, as will Haley, leaving Trump almost an open goal for his shot in Nevada.
South Carolina is next, and that’s been a priority for Trump. All of the polls indicate he has a commanding lead over Haley in her home state. This is also the first southern primary for this bunch, where DeSantis can argue to his fans that there might be some spillover from his work in Florida. If Trump matches the polls thus far in South Carolina, the humiliation of a beatdown in her home state, would be the de facto end or Haley’s campaign, and I would bet DeSantis as well.
Last to come in February is Michigan, where the Republican party has been riven by internal conflict with efforts to oust their leader, that she’s contesting. It hardly matters, because the conflict alone assures that Trump’s opponents won’t get much real help from their own party. If DeSantis and Haley are still on the ballot and claiming to be in the race, it’ll mainly be in name only.
Dreamcatchers among their supporters might secretly hope that Trump gets a problem from the courts to keep them alive, but other than his corporate fraud case in New York, there won’t be a trial or decision from any other jurisdiction before spring at the earliest, so that’s too late to help any pretenders to his throne.
Politics is funny. Anything can happen. Still the fact that something might happen, doesn’t mean it will. The race for the Republican nomination is all over but for the shouting now, and in six weeks, you can put a fork in it, because it’ll be over and done.
From March to November, get ready for one of the longest, toughest presidential campaigns in US history. Both nominees will be set in stone. Campaigns gearing up after Labor Day will be passe, because this one will be in high gear by Easter and boring by Memorial Day, making the whole affair one of the longest summers of our lives. This campaign will be epic and like nothing any of us have ever seen, and if any of you aren’t afraid, you just aren’t paying attention.