New Orleans Way back when, a popular slogan for the #MeToo moment was “trust women.” As the US election runs the clock don in the final hours, for those trying to figure out which way the wind may finally blow, these few words stick hard to me. For of the talk about a declining vote among black men and younger voter and non-college white men moving towards Trump, as the Chinese often noted, “women hold up half the world,” and in this election, I think they may hold up way more than half.
The Des Moines Register for the last more than 50 years at least has been a political bellwether newspaper, largely because of its legacy until recently as the first presidential primary indicator when it holds its caucuses. In its last pre-election poll, literally talking to voters over the last week, suddenly in this non-battleground state, presumed to be solidly Trump red, their numbers find a 4-point lead for Harris. Of course, no one can bet the farm on any poll these days, as I’ve often said, but this was a surprise propelled on recent numbers and, most importantly, on the women. The Journal reported that,
According to the Iowa Poll, the slight lead for Harris was driven by women, particularly those who are older or politically independent. Independent women selected Harris over Trump 57 percent to 29 percent, which was up from September, when they gave her only a five-point edge.
Nate Silver, founder of the 528 Blog, and a highly respected poll aggregator and a better than average gambler, several weeks ago wrote that in “his gut” he thinks Trump is going to win. I wonder what his gut is saying now that Trump’s brag that he is going to protect women, even if they don’t like him or as his position among Hispanic voters plummets with attacks on immigration and Puerto Rico. Other betting odds on the election have gone from way Trump to Harris in recent days as well. I read Silver’s book, so I know he doesn’t bet more than he can afford to lose, so I’m not worried about him. He also was clear in the book that only a sucker bets on his gut.
In my gut, I get the feeling that that women are going to be the difference. Older and independent women vote, full stop. Men of all shapes and sizes are no more reliable in this arena than they are in so many other arenas, I say without any pride in my gender. I also think Harris has been shrewd in not campaigning on race and gender, which has highlighted Trump’s racism and misogyny, as he’s tried to get her goat. These days add fascism to his standard issue racism and misogyny, along with increasing erratic performances and loss of acuity, and for voters with their feet on the ground, no matter their grievances, it’s not a good look.
I read a forever long piece in the New Yorker on the commitment and enthusiasm of Black women’s sororities for Harris. I’m not a fan of fraternities or sororities, but for me, it’s another log on the fire underpinning the efforts, some not so visible, that women, not just Black women, may see this as finally their one-in-a-lifetime the best chance for a woman in the White House. Add the trepidation about choice and the way men in some states are risking women’s lives for political advantage, and my bet is that women will decide this election. I trust them to do the right thing.