New Orleans A Washington Post article caught my eye saying, “The future of white-collar work may be unionized.” Really, I thought to myself, in what dream cycle, what’s up with this?
Some of this is just a logical statement of fact. Blue collar work, especially in manufacturing, continues to decline, and construction unions are fighting to hold onto big jobs with residential long gone. The union density in public employment, and, until recently, coverage in federal employment, is much higher than many other industries, including hourly workers, but still contains huge numbers of white-collar men and women.
The numbers from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics indicate that in 2024, private sector workers had a union membership rate of 5.9%, while public sector workers had a rate of 32.2%, putting the rate in the public sector over five times higher than in the private sector. About half of all U.S. union members work for the government, even though the private sector workforce is much larger overall. Twenty-five years ago, I can remember Mark Splain, formerly an ACORN and United Labor Unions organizer, and always a comrade and friend, remarking when he was organizing director for the AFL-CIO that their projections predicted that union density in the private sector would fall to 5% without something major happening. It was unbelievable then, but seems prescient now that the numbers are less than 6% and falling, with the overall union density now only 9.9% in the US.
The Post piece hangs its speculation on organizing by some bank workers, game workers, and some interest among law firms. Microsoft has been one of the few firms that have recognized unions among their tech workers, but it’s a tiny part of their workforce. The Alphabet Workers Union at Google is an embryonic effort, as are many others. Scholars, at Georgetown and Harvard, argued that the emergence of artificial intelligence and job threats to tech and similar workers might create the preconditions for more unionization.
How wonderful if we could grasp these rainbows of hope and activity. Unfortunately, no major unions are mentioned in this piece, even though UFCW has long held the jurisdiction for bank workers, the UAW has represented legal workers on the East Coast for years, the CWA has led the way in trying innovative strategies to organize in the tech industries, and SEIU has made progress in organizing academic workers. Any real, measurable progress in mass organizing depends on these large and established unions investing resources and organizers into the project. There’s little evidence of that, though hope springs eternal.
The climate for more progress among public workers is now threatened, given the Trump administration’s anti-union obsessions and many red states adopting similar tactics. Despite high curiosity and support for unionization reported in polls over recent years, especially among younger workers, converting these sentiments into success and membership growth has been difficult. The great organizing successes, for example among Starbucks workers over recent years, is still stalled while seeking a first contract. The company’s announced closure of 400 stores is not a good sign, and antidotal evidence indicates a disturbing number of these supposedly under-producing locations were locations that had unionized, three in New Orleans and three in Little Rock, for example.
The spirit may be ripe for unionization, but the flesh might not be as strong as we need to turn these sentiments into unions and members.