Brussels Karl Rove was the consiglieri for the Bush branch of the Republican Party. He’s hardly the bellwether for the MAGA brand or a Trump fanboy, but his regular column in the Wall Street Journal gives him a big platform to business, Washington, and the political class in general. He’s a partisan, but he’s no empty suit slouch. As the dust on the recent election continues to settle and the political pros are still trying to excavate and uncover the losers and how they died at the ballot box, he has some insights for the elephant team, which are worth everyone’s contemplation.
Complacency was part of the problem. Republican voters were happy with the Trump administration and stayed home. Most Democrats weren’t and turned out…And the GOP has to learn that screaming “communist” and “socialist” at run-of-the-mill Democrats doesn’t move even die-hard MAGA voters…. Most concerning for the GOP, voters’ decisions Tuesday were certainly a result of their disapproval of Mr. Trump and his policies. The RealClearPolitics average that day had him at 43.4% approve, 54.4% disapprove. He has even worse numbers on the economy, foreign policy and inflation. To turn this around, the White House will need to focus on the economy and the cost of living, speak candidly about challenges, lower expectations, temper the rhetoric, underpromise, overdeliver and stop going too far, like with Immigration and Customs Enforcement roundups at Home Depot. The parties have also changed. Democrats once were mostly noncollege voters, Republicans mostly college-educated. Today, it’s reversed, and the GOP must acknowledge that noncollege voters are less likely to turn out. Republicans must figure out how to turn out these voters—even though Mr. Trump’s name will never again appear on a ballot to motivate them.
If I were a Republican, I might not take Rove’s advice, but I wouldn’t ignore it, especially after their drubbing in the off-year elections. I think it’s worse than he says, because he – and his party – might be counting the dead in their column, but not the wounded, whose numbers continue to explode.
Remember it wasn’t too long ago, hardly a year, when the Trumpers and their like were claiming to have significantly eroded the Democratic base, including with a higher vote count among Black men and Latinos. The whole thrust, for example of the Texas redistricting play to help Trump control the House of Representatives was based on an assumption that formerly Democratic South Texas counties that had moved towards Republicans in the last election would be ready to elect Republican representatives now. This election, spurred by the domestic viciousness of Trump’s anti-immigrant ICE squads, has moved Latinos back into the blue column, and, if Trump’s tactics continue, could stampede them for good. Under Trump’s economy, the rich are doing well, but the unemployment rate for Black men has gone through the roof.
Trump and his team’s tactics against the poor, especially denying food stamps, will also add to the wounded. 42 million depend on food stamps, and may do without food this month, which includes some paltry Thanksgiving dinners, if this continues. These tactics don’t just hurt the 42 million, but also their communities, and their families, who now have to dig deeper to help their people survive their hunger until the end of the shutdown. Food stamps are not distributed just in the cities that Republicans abhor, but are also a lifeline in small towns and rural areas. Does the Trump team think they won’t notice what happens at dinner time, or will somehow forget the pain from this cruelty on coming election days? They may just say, hey, they won’t vote, but as the recent exit polls have shown, when they do vote, many left the MAGA ranks and went with Democrats in high numbers over the economy. On food stamps the old organizing call of “come and bring one,” changes to “starve one, affect two.”
Rove is right. Name-calling won’t work anymore. The sticks and stones are what people will remember in future elections when they think about the arrests for some of their neighbors and the hunger felt by many others. If Trump maintains this course, the deluge is coming.