New Orleans The US and Israel are now moving into the third week of the war with Iran, and the rest of the US and the world are already soooo over this. In addition to bombs away, Israel seems intent on a complete invasion of Lebanon, perhaps hoping to occupy even more of the country, claiming to be fighting Iran’s proxy Hezbollah. Trump seems caught between a rock and a hard place about where to go with this undeclared and expensive war. He claims he wants it over, but makes threats and promises that either damage American credibility or extend the fighting indefinitely.
The Strait of Hormuz is the key battlefield now, so maybe it’s more accurate to say that Trump, Hegseth and the gang are caught somewhere between the devil and the deep blue sea. Twenty percent of the oil moves on tankers from the Middle East producers through the Strait. Maritime and shipping monitors say that the war has now reduced traffic from more than 100 ships daily to only one or two that turn off their radar and try to make it through at night. Ships are anchored at both ends of the Hormuz. Drones from Iran have hit three of the tankers. Maritime insurers have refused to carry policies at any price until they have some assurances that there is either a settlement or some indication of safety. Shippers are equally clear that they can’t afford the likely cost of the insurance now. They are either trying to find new routes or staying put. The head of the US Department of Transportation concedes that even with the record release by many countries of their oil reserves, it will be a while before that impacts prices at the pump, increasing the domestic pressure in the US and other countries.
Trump made a plea to China and other countries to provide naval assistance to escort and safeguard shipping through the Strait. Having unilaterally joined Israel in starting this war, the response from China and other countries was described as “tepid.” Other countries may offer the minimum, but it’s understandable that most seem to think that Trump broke this, so it’s his problem to fix.
The fix on the strait is difficult. Iran’s drones are a problem, but so are its mines. The strait is also very narrow, meaning less maneuverability by the huge tankers, much less naval destroyers that might be hoping to offer protection. Military experts also seem to universally believe that securing the strait would also mean deploying land troops on the ground in Iran to provide security and prevent attacks. The US now has somewhere around 30,000 troops nearby, but moving from air to land would be a huge escalation. It’s just not easy to open the Strait and make oil tankers safe to deliver their goods.
The domestic politics for Trump are also precarious. The war is unpopular generally and with increasing parts of his base. The impact on the economy is significant and felt personally in every fill-up since prices have risen 40% and by the barrel is now at $104.
Houston, we’ve got a problem! In this case, there’s a long list, but the Strait of Hormuz is at the top of it.