New Orleans Trump’s and Israel’s war with Iran is entering its second month. The president is claiming that we’re coming around the corner. Since it seems no one was ever clear about where we were going, it’s now an equal mystery what we are supposed to find when we finally get there. Interestingly, the world seems to fear the aftereffects of this bloody adventure may be severe and ongoing.
A reporter for the Times took some interesting swipes at the domestic and international crisis and confusion triggered by Trump, pulling out the term “midtransition” to describe not only the stage of moving from fossil fuel to a green future, but so many other calculations that are exposed, as we are all caught in the middle of the stream. The explosive growth of alternative energy over recent years, whether wind or solar, has been amazing. The grid is trying to adapt even as new US domestic policies try pull us backwards by cutting off support and subsidies for more development under the current administration.
The Iranian war and the Strait of Hormuz chokehold reverberates internationally even more than the price at the US fuel pumps breaking $4 per gallon hits domestically, proving we are still stuck and likely for several decades to come in fossil fuel dependency. When Trump hands a gift to Russia to relieve sanctions on their oil exports, ignoring the other war against their aggression in Ukraine, and even floats allowing Iran to move oil through the Strait, even while bombing the bejesus out of them, there can’t be any clearer proof that oil is still in the driver’s seat and Trump and the rest are just visible manifestations of the tail wagging.
These aren’t the only contradictions. China, as this report reminds us, is leading the green transition globally while still firing up coal plants and importing oil from Russia and Iran. In this analysis, Putin moved on Ukraine now realizing that his leverage from oil was decreasing as Europe went green, so he had to make his play before the transition was complete. All this fits in with speculation that it might have been Ukraine that blew up the pipelines from Russia to force decarbonization’s momentum in Europe to speed up as well.
More mundanely, but still fascinating, was the speculation about what we do with all of the outmoded gas stations someday. One around the corner from me was converted to a taco restaurant, but I doubt that is the real plan. What happens to shipping since 40% of their load now is fuel, when those pipelines start trickling down and so many become redundant? In fact, what happens to utility companies that we have fought forever if more countries join the adoption of rooftop solar making homes energy sources. All will still exist, but their roles will change.
Same for countries including the Middle East petrostates, the US, and Russia. Trump knocked humpty-dumpty off the wall, whether he knew what he was doing or not, but now that its shattered the world, neither he nor others may be able to put it back together the way they might have wanted. We all may be in midtransition, but, whether many countries like it or not, this may put the transition into hyperdrive. We better buckle up our seatbelts, because no one knows where we’re heading exactly or when we’ll get there.