Pearl River      In a recent campaign stop, I think it was Alaska, Trump’s greatest pleasure seemed to be bragging about the controversial 747 airplane, supposedly gifted by the Qatari government.  My point is not to pick the scab on this continuing controversy about this boondoggle, but to underline one of the few happy moments Trump was having on the campaign trail, which used to be his special feelgood narcotic.  We also have to ask, why was he in deep, deep red Alaska having to try to rally what’s left of his base in a last-ditch effort to protect a Senate seat there?  He seemed to wonder as well, making a point about the eight-hour flight, luxury plane notwithstanding.

In organizing before some union and local elections where our organizations were deeply involved, we knew we were in trouble when we could detect what I called “the smell of death.”  It was easy to measure.  Staunch members of the organizing committee would be absent at the meetings.  Fewer doors would be opened when we passed by, even as we could see lights on inside and cars on the street.  An organizer can feel when the tide is turning.  So can politicians, and when you look at where Trump is showing up on the campaign trail, the big whoop Republicans and MAGA folks must be smelling death for their midterm chances as well.

Not only has Trump been to Alaska, but twice to Texas, as well as Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Ohio, all states where in the past two elections he has won going away by large margins.  Party strategists have given up on thinking that their main man is anything other than toxic among independents, which the polls confirm.  He’s not out there trying to sell anymore, even though that’s been his brand.  He’s on the trail to try to stop there being so many returns on what he has sold in the past. In this campaign, he’s trying staunch the desertion of much of his base.  Finally, that hardcore 30% that he has leveraged for years, is decidedly not enough.  He and his party are having to come to grip with how much they have poisoned the general voting public.  I’m not saying that he has learned this lesson, even though he must be reading his private polls now, or that he will change his ways, but he has to feel the wind blowing hard against him.

Trump famously overcounts his crowds from his first inauguration to today, but everyone is counting the empty seats and smaller venues for his rallies now.  When he was in Mobile, Alabama, where at the beginning of his political ascent 30,000 showed up, now there were whole sections of the smaller space empty.

Some could say that his handlers are keeping him in deep red land and smaller spaces for his safety.  Maybe so?  My bet is that they have also picked up the smell of death of almost certain losses.  We’ll see soon.