Tag Archives: Democratic Party

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Reading the Tea Leaves in the Iowa Disaster

New Orleans      The best thing to come out of the Iowa caucus disaster is the delay, which continues even now, because it prevents preemptive determination of a winner until the full totals are known, rather than allowing the headlines to anoint someone who seems to have won, giving them unearned momentum, when later it turns out that another candidate won more delegates.  The latest with 97% of the caucus results supposed tallied is a virtual tie between small-town mayor Pete Buttigieg and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders.  At this writing there’s less than a one-tenth of a point difference between the two with Mayor Pete ahead by a nose.  Their delegate counts are identical.  Who is the winner?  In reality, no one.  Looking more closely though, there are a lot of losers.

The map makes it clear that Minnesota’s Senator Amy Klobuchar is toast.  Her Amy from the middle of the road next door didn’t survive the caucuses as a serious alternative.  Unless I’m off the mark, she may have only won one county.  She is likely history after New Hampshire, and is only still hanging by a thread there, because Iowa was so late out of the blocks.  The winnowing is also likely to count billionaire, hedge fund veteran Tom Steyer with 1% and Andrew Yang who has gotten farther than any might have figured but was nowhere here.

Looking at the numbers, Sanders seems like the winner, if this had been a vote, rather than a caucus.  From the numbers reported by the Democratic party and shown in the Washington Post, Sanders won 42,672 of the first choices to Buttigieg’s 36,718.  In a caucus, the second and other choices are able to then combine later, but if this had been a ballot, Sanders was the winner by a large margin.  Dear ol’ Iowa still thinks it’s horseshoes, not a horse race.

The question of appeal also should disturb the political pros in all the campaigns.  Polk County, where Des Moines is located, is about the only place in this corn-fed, white state that can even pretend to be somewhat diverse, and there it was a push between the two candidates at the end.  The rest of the map makes it look like the appeal for Mayor Pete was rural and whiter and for Sanders slightly more urban in the counties he “won” outright.  The Democrats are an urban party, not a rural one.  They have a chance of beating Trump on the streets, but not in the sticks.

Senator Elizabeth Warren who reportedly had the strongest organization going into the caucuses did depressingly poorly in a situation where organization usually rules.  Former VP Biden who was expected to do poorly with a weak organization, delivered solidly on those expectations.   There’s trouble a plenty for both campaigns.

Here’s one other takeaway that should give any of us hoping to beat Trump nightmares.  Turnout was about the same as 2016 in Iowa and far, far below the 240,000 that came out for Obama back in the day.  The notion that the resistance and the time to make it all right again is going to move voters to the polls was decidedly not in evidence in Iowa.  These candidates have not set the rank-and-file, grassroots on fire. There’s nothing but trouble on the horizon unless something sorts out better soon.

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Trump Is Right – The Democrats are a Hot Mess

Greenville       It’s like the line about a broken clock is still right two times a day. President Trump is right that the Democrats look like the gang that can’t shoot straight and might not be competent enough to run the US government.  What a sorry, tragic state of affairs.

The Iowa primaries finally reported some results.  Partial results of course, since they are still counting and have only gotten to about 62% the day after their caucuses.  The headlines are calling it for former small-town mayor Pete Buttigieg by a nose over Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders with Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren quite a bit behind and former Vice-President Joe Biden trailing her in fourth.  The rest are in the dust.

Who are they kidding?  Iowa is a wipeout.  There are no winners, only losers.  They all go on to New Hampshire being able to claim it is a do-over, since Iowa was such a mess.  Sanders in fact looks like he was the first choice in the reports from the caucus, even though as voters there caucused Buttigieg might have tallied slightly more.  My point is simple.  Everyone can claim whatever.

The Democratic Party had more than three years to get ready for this.  The resistance was front and center.  Trump was the target.  They knew the election was coming and that the country was betting all the marbles on trying to take Trump down, and now when voters finally get to stand up and be counted, the party lets them down.  Trump isn’t wrong about that.  He’s spot-on.  Of course, he doesn’t believe in parties at all as he has proven in his decimation of the Republican Party.  Maybe he has a point, as painful as it is to say.  The Democratic Party failed its people.

The impeachment is the other piece of evidence front and center.  Sound and fury signifying next to nothing.  The needle hardly moved, and some polls are claiming that Trump is finally becoming popular.  Everyone, including virtually the entire US Senate and certainly the American public, knows he’s guilty and did everything he was accused of doing, but the votes were never going to be there to remove him, so it was a show trial.  Trump won’t be ruled guilty, so he will have the right to claim vindication.

So, we’re back to square one.  You can only beat Trump in an election, and so far, the Democrats don’t know how to run or win an election and seem lost and divided in picking a candidate to take on Trump.

How can this end well?

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Please enjoy 1. Grace Potter – Back To Me [Feat. Lucius] (Radio Edit)

Thanks to WAMF.

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