Marble Falls There’s no question that President Biden’s announcement that he would not be a candidate in the coming election, his endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris, and her surge over the last two weeks has totally altered the US presidential campaign. The reaction from many sectors and large parts of the Democratic Party to these developments shifted the momentum of the campaign from the cocky self-satisfaction of the Trump forces at the Republican convention to Harris in this period. Momentum may be an unusually important factor is such a short campaign window over the next hundred or so days, but it’s difficult to sustain.
It’s beyond question that Harris has it. Whether I like it or not, I get emails from the Trump-Vance forces and their fundraising pitch is all about how desperate they are that Harris has raised over $200 million from more than a million donors since Biden left the race. I’m not saying they’re scared, but it’s hard to leach some of the fear from the messages. More than money, parts of the base are wild for Harris. Zoom calls with her have topped 100,000. Women, especially Black women, have mobilized quickly and effectively.
Polling is measuring this wave of support. NPR reports that the race is essentially tied now. A Wall Street Journal poll confirms that Harris and Trump are now neck and neck within the margin of error. Their poll “shows heightened support for her among nonwhite voters and dramatically increased enthuiasm about the campaign among Democrats. On a ballot test that included Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other independent and third-party candidates, Harris receives 45% and Trump gets 44%. Kennedy is backed by just 4% and 5% remain undecided.” A New York Times/Siena College poll shows Trump with only a one-point lead, 48 to 47%. Needless to say, these are all better numbers that Biden had been polling. Other evidence indicates that she has managed to invigorate younger voters as well, that had previously been tailing off. Donors that had been dropping out, seem to have come back. There are still some whiners, as there always are, but Democrats seem to be unifying behind Harris with the same strength that Republicans seemed to have achieved at their high point in Milwaukee during the convention.
For Democrats this moment has to be exciting, and I don’t want to be a downer, but momentum is hard to sustain and is not enough to guarantee a win. There are many challenges. Despite Trump’s current waffling and efforts to work the ref and switch to a Fox News venue, there will be debates, and Harris will meet the same challenge that Biden failed. The Democratic Convention is in mid-August, and Harris will need to seize the opportunity. Reportedly, 25 million heard Trump’s speech, so Harris needs to grab that mic hard and hold it.
Harris also needs to do well on the choice of a vice-president for her ticket. Luckily for her, here she’s in an almost “no lose” situation, given the poor reception that Trump’s choice of Ohio Senator and author JD Vance has received, since he joined the Republican ticket. Vance’s written work provided plenty of fodder for criticism of this positions on a number of issues, as well as creating a general feeling that speaks to opportunism and inauthenticity more than anything else. Many voters may now feel that if he is the future coming behind the date expiration on a 78-year-old model; they are not interested.
Some have offered the radical view that the campaign may now actually be about issues. That’s likely a bridge too far for Trump, who specializes in a more self-centered approach and personalizing the attack against any and all opposition. If Harris were to actually focus on issues, that would be refreshing and novel. It also might move more independents to her column and offset that part of the electorate that is dead set against a woman as president, as well as a nonwhite candidate.
Momentum is great, but firm policies on issues might be more sustainable. Any way you look at it, it’s a horse race now and a sprint to the finish line.