Marble Falls The US side of the war with Iran is now contending for a position in the historic list of worst American military misadventures ever. Remember our invasion of Grenada for example? The record is very muddied about whether Spain blew up the Maine in the Havana harbor or whether it was a spontaneous combustion of a poorly maintained vessel. There were no missiles of mass destruction in Iraq, but the US lingered on. In Iran, the Trump administration has still not provided a coherent explanation for why the US is in the mess and has bombed the dickens out of that country. Maybe we were hustled by Israel? Maybe we were worried about nuclear capacity? Maybe it was just about oil? This is one where when it’s all over, the cover story will have to be practiced often and shined for consistent rationale later. Meanwhile, Trump and his administration are teaching all of us a master class in the how farce combines with tragedy.
There is no “art of the deal” in these negotiations. One minute there are meetings in Pakistan in the shadow of a pretend deadline to end the ceasefire, which breaks down when the US proposes that Iran “take it or leave it,” and they leave it. When the ceasefire is scheduled to end, Trump backs off his threats and bullying, realizing perhaps that they aren’t working, and extends the ceasefire indefinitely, claiming that he’s doing it in response to Pakistan’s request to resume negotiations. Then the foreign minister negotiating for Iran goes to Islamabad, but without confirmation from the US, he leaves, so that Trump has to just about pull his son-in-law and buddy, who he has appointed as negotiators, and VP Vance almost off the tarmac to not go to Pakistan.
Meanwhile, the world economy and access to fuel is getting hammered with millions imperiled, because Trump and his team foolishly belittled any suggestion that Iran might block the Strait of Hormuz and the oil shipping lanes. The US domestic situation and economy is worsening by the day and Trump’s popularity is falling as rapidly as gas prices at the pump are rising. Now the administration is seriously considering a two-track negotiations that Iran has proposed with opening the Strait at one table, separate from the nuclear bomb development question at another. Outside observers are noting that Trump would be lucky to even get as good a deal as the Obama agreement that he walked away from in his first term. This farce tragically may, if we’re lucky, take us back to where we were years ago, and no farther.
Some of the first rules of negotiations are that the “threat is always more powerful than the action” and “don’t slap the bear, if you can’t bring the bear down.” Trump has failed on all counts. He didn’t weight the consequences of his threats, many of which were so over the top as to constitute war crimes. He never seemed to have considered what would happen if Iran didn’t buckle, confusing them for Venezuela, which even school children could have told him was a mistake, though his advisors and cabinet all caved to crazy like sheep to the slaughter.
The US could be in negotiations over the Strait with a weak hand and questionable leverage, since Iran’s hardline government seems willing to endure almost any deprivation of its people, but where Trump is desperate to get oil moving around the world again. Few cards are in his hands. In fact, the constant comments about the diminishing supply of US munitions is perhaps heartening to the Iranians and frightening for the rest of the imperiled world and might embolden other autocracies. If there’s another table on the nukes, any good negotiator would argue a package deal against the oil problem. Reports have indicated Iran is willing to suspend production for 5 or 10 years for peace and the US wants 25. None of that meets any standard of having solved the question of Iran becoming a nuclear power in the future.
Trump’s recklessness has diminished the standing of the United States as a world power markedly, which is a long way from Making America Great Again, and he is now being forced to bargain away anything he can for peace before the tragedy worsens.
There are lessons here that no one should ever forget.