Pearl River      2022 wasn’t so long ago that we can’t remember it.  The oil shock that brutalized the world economy then came from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  The reverberations were everywhere, but the impact on Europe was the worse, because they relied on Russian imported oil.  While they weaned off, they were basically financing Russia’s war.  Now with Trump’s Iranian war reports indicate for many Europeans, it’s “fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me,” so purchases of heat pumps, solar panels and electric vehicles are surging as many seek alternatives.

Of course, that’s true if you have the job and money that can finance alternatives, many of which might pay off in the long run, but are very pricey in the short run, so are out of reach for the millions for whom there is “more month than money.”  Gig workers in our union in India have been hammered, but so have similar workers in the US and elsewhere.  When gas prices at the pump jump by 50% from two-dollar-something to four-dollars and change and still rising, it’s a problem.  Airlines might be able to add a surcharge, but for daily livelihood workers the pain is intense.

That pain from lower waged workers is fueling the disapproval rates for Trump over his war.  The chief economist for the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities, a well-respected nonprofit policy shop in Washington, DC, nailed this, comparing Ukraine then to Iran now, saying this economic shock had different “root causes, The Biden administration didn’t make Russia invade Ukraine,” since this is a more of “an own goal.”  Other economists are equally dour.  One from Nationwide expects inflation in the US to be 4.5% this summer, twice the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal.  Yikes!

In the US, as elsewhere in the world, who is hurt? It’s low-and-moderate income families.  “Researchers at the Bank of America noted in April that higher-income households had experienced wage growth of 5.6% annually compared with 1% to 2% growth” for these workers, “the widest gap since 2015.”  Job markets are worse now as well, leaving few alternatives for workers now than in 2022, as well as leaving the “bottom 50% of wage earners…more vulnerable to a shock.”  The investment bank, Barclays, says demand for gas has gone down, and suspects that families are letting their walking do the talking with fewer discretionary drives and likely more staycations, rather than road trips this summer.

The K-style economy where the rich and the richer continue to do wildly better than everyone else seems to also be part of the story of Trump’s war.  Defense’s Hegseth’s admission that $25 billion had been spent early in the war is, as usual, short-balling.  Economists say that was just the cost of Tomahawks, other armaments, and some troop movements.  The real cost for the military is more, but it is dwarfed by the other economic ramifications which add up to “hundreds of billions and perhaps trillions.”

Make no mistake, we’re all paying the price for Trump’s war recklessness, some way more than others without the resources and wages to weather this financial assault.