Pearl River Walking in my neighborhood, I still see a couple of houses flying the yellow and blue flag in solidarity with Ukraine. More than four years after Russia invaded the country, and now as we are all obsessed and hammered by the Trump war in Iran and horrified by news of Israel’s activity in Gaza and the West Bank, Ukraine is hardly on the tip of tongues. Many have always seen this as a David and Goliath situation that for some reason has lingered on with Ukraine still hanging in there even as the US and Trump have gone hot and cold on their prospects and sometimes played footsie with Putin. Perhaps their ability to adapt and persist should have been a cautionary tale for Trump’s misadventure in Iran in fact.
Surprisingly, current assessments seem to offer the prospects that Ukraine might in fact be winning with the events shifting in favor of Ukraine. Certainly, there were reports of a very subdued Russian Victory Day parade in Moscow, fearing they were offering too enticing a target for Ukrainian drones. Russia’s spring offensive is seen as “a flop…in April [as] Russia suffered a net loss of territory for the first time since August 2024…estimated at 113 square kilometers over the past 30 days.” A Washington, DC think tank lists the factors behind Ukraine’s successes as “ground counter-attacks and mid-range strikes by Ukraine forces; the end of Russia’s illicit use of [Musk’s] Starlink terminals in Ukraine; and the Kremlin’s throttling of the Telegram messaging app…” Russia’s loss of 35,000 soldiers a month is hard to conceal with “nearly 1.4 million killed or serious wounded since the invasion.” Russia may be losing two dead to every one wounded, and all of this exceeds their ability to recruit replacements. Shutting down social media can’t hide the damage.
Ukraine’s advances and use of drones have revolutionized their efforts as well as changed the character of war and military activity throughout the world. The Economist reports that the “drone ‘kill zone’ of some 20km between the front lines is being extended to the Russian rear.” Ukraine now has developed mid-range drones that can go between 50 and 300 kilometers, which has allowed Ukraine to increasingly hit critical Russian military supply targets. Ukraine also has long range capability and has struck targets 2000km from its borders and has been successful at hitting oil infrastructure, helping reduce Russian exports by 7% in April. It’s interceptor drones have a 95% rate against Russian attack drones.
Putin has even said that the war is coming to an end. Peace talks here have been on the back burner. Russia has doubled down with guided missiles, so is clearly trying to increase damage to Kyiv and Ukraine. Russia certainly put Ukrainians through a terrible and cold winter. Perhaps this is about improving its negotiating position, but it is unlikely to win on the ground, land it is unable to hold.
Like Iran, this is a war that isn’t over and continues to be unpredictable. Still, the lessons here are that no matter how large and powerful the aggressor, winning is still elusive and painful, and through innovation, grit and stubborn nationalism, it is foolhardy to count the Davids out no matter the Goliaths, and the righteousness or ridiculousness of their aims. No one can ever underestimate how deeply people will fight for their country.