Marble Falls     Trump has taken a victory lap, announcing a tentative agreement with Iran to end the war.  This declaration by Trump is way too reminiscent of George W. Bush’s appearance on a US aircraft carrier to claim victory on May 1, 2003 by announcing “Mission Accomplished” and the end to the Iraq War, which then lasted another several years.  Admittedly, the details are sketchy, and even the tentative agreement won’t be signed for several days, but what has emerged looks very thin.  Both sides, Iran and the US, are declaring victory, which might be face-saving diplomacy, but also raises the specter from labor negotiations where a ”tentative” agreement is just that, and not a full and complete agreement on all outstanding issues, and may in fact still indicate that there is not a real “meeting of the minds” required for a complete agreement.

The only item of the agreement that Trump has heralded is the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.  It’s impossible not to remind everyone this was not an objective of either the US or Israel when the war began.  This was in fact the response by Iran, after being bombed, which has triggered oil shortages around the world and huge price increases at the pump in the US and elsewhere.  The other claims Trump has made publicly thus far are that ships are moving in the Strait.  There have always been some ships moving, just not many, and in reality, shipowners are still being cautious in their comments saying the strait will only be open if there are “security guarantees,” whatever that means.  The tentative agreement supposedly includes a 60-day ceasefire to continue negotiations on the rest of the issues that can be extended.  For the life of me, it looks like all of the theoretical objectives of this war, although Trump was never coherent on that score, were not met in any way whatsoever.  This is really just an announcement of what we should all hope is a more serious commitment by the parties to a ceasefire.

Iran is saying little different.  They are also saying this ceasefire covers an end to Israel’s bombardment of Lebanon where Iran’s proxy in ensconced.  Israel was not a party of this tentative agreement and the news from Israel includes harsh criticisms of Netanyahu for not having achieved any progress in this war on their national security objectives.

Israelis may just be better at calling a spade a spade, because Americans could and should say the same thing to Trump.  This foolhardy escapade of a war by Trump and Hegseth seems to have at best only gotten Iran and the US back to the negotiating table and the same square one on an agreement that Trump walked away from in his first term.  Other reports indicate that part of this deal will include a reduction or elimination of US sanctions against Iran and a release of Iranian assets that have been frozen previously.  The best reports indicate that Iran may be agreeing to not develop the capacity for building a nuclear bomb for twenty years, which is also not much more that the Obama agreement had achieved.

At great expense of blood and treasure on all sides among the combatants along with impacts that have been severe and adverse around the world, how can anyone not conclude that if this is the deal, why was there a war?