McCain-Pailin Going Down

McCain-Pailin Going Down
October 15, 2008       

            New Orleans               ACORN’s 30 seconds is moving towards 5 minutes at the center of the Presidential campaign, but my bet is that it is almost over.  Yesterday there were almost 500 press hits in a perfect storm of media frenzy on the “ACORN” issue.  AP wire covered a press conference in DC where ACORN argued its case around voter registration.  The Times ran a by-line story that was fairly stated on ACORN’s efforts.  McCain called on Obama to join with him to protect the vote election day.  Obama indicated that they were not taking advice from ACORN on voter registration, but the campaign also correctly pushed back that the Republicans were really more interested in voter suppression in tight elections in the states.  In Ohio there was RICO actions against ACORN threatened based on the votes.  No question about it, ACORN was at the center of the storm.

            But, not for long, and I would predict outside of the wing-nut segment, this is now already over and what we are seeing today is the last wave hitting the beach after having started thousands of miles away in ocean.  Importantly, the New York Times released the results of its polling that indicated that McCain had fallen dramatically and precipitously in a head-to-head with Obama largely because of the negative campaigning over the last week (which would have included the Bill Ayers and ACORN bashing).  The American public was disenchanted at what they saw as the McCain-Pailin effort to jaw flap on sidebar, irrelevant concerns, while the economy was going into the most severe crises since the Great Depression.  The American public has also become completely alienated with the pit bull stuff of Sarah Pailin and has taken her favorability down in the low 30’s and unfavorable up in the 40’s.

            The campaign already started tacking differently in the last 48 hours, no doubt because their internal polling was telling the same tale to them that we are now reading in the Times.  The numbers are devastating with Obama over 50% and McCain down to 39% with 3 weeks to go and only tonight’s debate left.  Factoring in a Nadar 3% and a Libertarian 1% of the vote, Obama would win if the voting were today with a clear majority of 51% and McCain would trail with 39%.  That’s a butt whipping of historic proportions, making my bet both sure and safe that outside of the blogosphere and the heavy breathing, drollers on the far right, we are not going to see ACORN at the center of the controversy (everything being equal at least).

            It’s all about winning in the big leagues in this contest, and since the smears and lies about ACORN and others with Obama isn’t working, there will be a new pitch from here on out.  Let’s see if it helps narrow the gap, because at this point there is already champagne on ice in the Obama clubhouse, just waiting for the night of November 4th.
McCain-Pailin Going Down

October 15, 2008       

            New Orleans               ACORN’s 30 seconds is moving towards 5 minutes at the center of the Presidential campaign, but my bet is that it is almost over.  Yesterday there were almost 500 press hits in a perfect storm of media frenzy on the “ACORN” issue.  AP wire covered a press conference in DC where ACORN argued its case around voter registration.  The Times ran a by-line story that was fairly stated on ACORN’s efforts.  McCain called on Obama to join with him to protect the vote election day.  Obama indicated that they were not taking advice from ACORN on voter registration, but the campaign also correctly pushed back that the Republicans were really more interested in voter suppression in tight elections in the states.  In Ohio there was RICO actions against ACORN threatened based on the votes.  No question about it, ACORN was at the center of the storm.

            But, not for long, and I would predict outside of the wing-nut segment, this is now already over and what we are seeing today is the last wave hitting the beach after having started thousands of miles away in ocean.  Importantly, the New York Times released the results of its polling that indicated that McCain had fallen dramatically and precipitously in a head-to-head with Obama largely because of the negative campaigning over the last week (which would have included the Bill Ayers and ACORN bashing).  The American public was disenchanted at what they saw as the McCain-Pailin effort to jaw flap on sidebar, irrelevant concerns, while the economy was going into the most severe crises since the Great Depression.  The American public has also become completely alienated with the pit bull stuff of Sarah Pailin and has taken her favorability down in the low 30’s and unfavorable up in the 40’s.

            The campaign already started tacking differently in the last 48 hours, no doubt because their internal polling was telling the same tale to them that we are now reading in the Times.  The numbers are devastating with Obama over 50% and McCain down to 39% with 3 weeks to go and only tonight’s debate left.  Factoring in a Nadar 3% and a Libertarian 1% of the vote, Obama would win if the voting were today with a clear majority of 51% and McCain would trail with 39%.  That’s a butt whipping of historic proportions, making my bet both sure and safe that outside of the blogosphere and the heavy breathing, drollers on the far right, we are not going to see ACORN at the center of the controversy (everything being equal at least).

            It’s all about winning in the big leagues in this contest, and since the smears and lies about ACORN and others with Obama isn’t working, there will be a new pitch from here on out.  Let’s see if it helps narrow the gap, because at this point there is already champagne on ice in the Obama clubhouse, just waiting for the night of November 4th.

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