Little Rock Who knows what the opinion polls mean anymore? My advice: do the work, wait, and see. Count the votes only when it’s over. Never suffer from premature certainty. Hit every door. Make every call, and then make every reminder call. Never stop until the voting polls close, because the opinion polls never stop.
On the road, I talked to our Houston office. What was the real story on Congressman Beto O’Rourke versus hard right Republican Senator Ted Cruz in Texas? Polls had Cruz up by 3% points now which is in the margin of error. My guy said, well, sure Cruz is favored and will probably win, but…. The “but” says everything. He went on to say you could not turn on the TV or radio or look at a website without seeing a Beto voting message. People in Texas were talking about him running for President whether he won or lost for the Senate, and you just know that’s crazy talk, but it makes the point. He’s raised more money than God. He’s set the dark blue to faded red base on fire. Who knows? But, as my mother used to say, “who votes for a mean man?”
In Greenville, talking to a former judge from south Mississippi and a coach from the delta, they were not worried about Congress, they were worried about voter turnout. Former Congressman Mike Espy was running a long shot race for US Senate. They were hoping him into the runoff where he might finally find some love and some resources for his race, but weren’t happy that African-American voters were not swamping the polls.
Driving into the 2nd District of Arkansas where a Republican Congressman French Hill was in a tighter than expected race against a Democratic upstart, State Representative Clarke Tucker, I listened to a French Hill political ad that he said he was proud to run on the radio. I couldn’t believe my ears when he said he wanted people to vote for him so he protect “preexisting conditions in health care insurance.” Yes, that’s the opposite of the Republican and presidential program around the Affordable Care Act. Yes, Republican Hill was endorsing a key plank of Obamacare. This race is obviously tighter than I would have thought.
Speaking of polls, as in voter surveys rather than real voting booths, every one that I’ve heard about or seen, seems to say that the more Trump is doubling, tripling, and quadrupling down on his falsehood-and-fear strategy threatening immigrants, ignoring violence, and wearing his “I am a misogynist and proud of it” t-shirt, the more he is pushing suburban, wealthier conservative voters – and women by the gazillions – into the Democratic camp for the midterms and maybe longer.
To reprise the old Bob Dylan song, “something is happening and you don’t know what it is. Do you, Mr. Trump?”
Please enjoy Last of Your Rock-N-Roll Heroes by Iron Wine.
Thanks to KABF.